Decline-curve analysis

A forecast of future rate from the way past rate has fallen with time or with cumulative production.

The classical Arps shapes are exponential, hyperbolic, and harmonic. They describe the decline that was observed. They are not a reservoir model, and they do not know why the rate fell.

A fit made while a well was beaned back, or before a workover, does not carry over after that constraint is removed. Changing the choke, the lift method, or the number of wells on a pad changes the curve. The method is most trustworthy when the operating conditions of the forecast match the conditions of the history.

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