Probability of an oilfield discovery

Input(s)

$K_{i}$: Number of Fields Discovered up to date in Selected Field Class (dimensionless)

$K_{o i}$: Estimated Total Number of Fields in Selected Field Class in the Region (dimensionless)

$A_{i}$: Total Area of Discovered Fields in Selected Field Class (acres)

$W$: Number of Exploration Wells Drilled up to date (dimensionless)

B: Total Area of the Region (acres)

$J$: Relative Efficiency of Scientific Exploration compared with Random Drilling (dimensionless)

$K_{i \_a d d}$: Number of Fields will be discovered with additional number of Exploration Wells (dimensionless)

$W_{\text {add }}$: Additional Number of Exploration Wells will be Drilled (dimensionless)

Output(s)

$P_{D}$: Probability of an Oilfield Discovery (fraction)

Formula(s)

$$ \begin{gathered} \mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{oi}}=\frac{\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i}}}{\left(1-\mathrm{e}^{-\mathrm{JA} \mathrm{A}_{\mathrm{i}} \mathrm{W} / \mathrm{B}}\right)} \\ \mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i} \_ \text {add }}=\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{oi}}\left(1-\mathrm{e}^{-\mathrm{JA}_{\mathrm{i}}\left(\mathrm{W}+\mathrm{W}_{\text {add }} / \mathrm{B}\right.}\right) \\ \mathrm{P}_{\mathrm{D}}=\frac{\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i} \_ \text {add }}-\mathrm{K}_{\mathrm{i}}}{\mathrm{W}_{\text {add }}} \end{gathered} $$

Note: All Formulas need to be applied in each Field Class separately.

Reference(s)

Serpen, U., Petroleum Economics, Course Notes, ITU Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Istanbul, Turkey, (2008) Page: 79.